Laguna Beach commercial real estate outlook: population, jobs, retail, industrial and city plans

How many people live in Laguna Beach, and is the city growing?

The U.S. Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates put the city of Laguna Beach at 22,391 people in 2025, down from 23,004 in 2020^[1]. Those are the population counts this page uses for the city.

The same Census Bureau files show Orange County at 3,149,507 people in 2025, against 3,158,027 in 2024 and 3,186,167 in 2020. The county lost 8,520 people in the 2025 estimate year: natural increase of 7,721 and international migration of 9,161 were outweighed by a domestic migration loss of 25,357, a net migration figure of negative 16,196^[1].

Why it matters: if you are weighing a Laguna Beach lease or purchase, ask the business or landlord who its customers are, residents or visitors, and what the sales history shows, then compare that with these population counts.

What do Orange County jobs and unemployment say about demand for commercial space?

These are Orange County figures, not Laguna Beach figures. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages counted 1,663,154 jobs in Orange County in March 2026 across 160,601 establishments, with an average weekly wage of $1,766 and employment up 0.6 percent over the year^[2].

Two Orange County sectors from that file are shown here. Leisure and hospitality employed 231,011 people at an average weekly wage of $765. Private manufacturing employed 146,025 people and fell 3.2 percent over the year^[2].

On unemployment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics series for Orange County shows 4.1 percent in June 2026, 4.2 percent in July and a preliminary 4.4 percent in August^[3]. The direction is up, and the August figure may be revised.

Why it matters: if you are a restaurant or hotel operator, check staffing cost and commute assumptions against a $765 weekly wage average. If you are a light industrial user, ask whether your trade sits with the shrinking manufacturing group or apart from it.

What are Orange County retail rents and vacancy, and what is missing for Laguna Beach?

Kidder Mathews' Orange County Retail Market Report for the third quarter of 2026 reports county retail vacancy of 3.3 percent, compared with 3.2 percent in the second quarter and 3.5 percent a year earlier. Average asking rent was $2.77 per square foot per month, up from $2.71 in the second quarter and $2.65 a year earlier. The same report gives an average sales price of $546 per square foot and an average cap rate of 5.2 percent^[4].

These are Orange County averages. The retail report has no Laguna Beach submarket table, and no public Laguna Beach office or retail vacancy or rent series was found for this page. Treat the county figures as background, not as a quote for any address.

Why it matters: if you are pricing a Laguna Beach retail or restaurant space, ask for the specific asking rent, the lease structure and recent nearby deals, and compare them with the county averages above instead of relying on them.

What does Kidder Mathews report for Laguna Beach industrial space?

Kidder Mathews' Orange County Industrial Market Report for the third quarter of 2026 groups Laguna Niguel and Laguna Beach into one combined submarket and does not split Laguna Beach out. That submarket holds 291,371 square feet of inventory, with a 2.9 percent direct vacancy rate, 0.0 percent sublet vacancy, a 2.9 percent total vacancy rate and a 2.8 percent total available rate^[5].

Direct net absorption was zero in the third quarter and negative 3,985 square feet year to date, and total leasing activity was zero for both the quarter and the year^[5]. The report does not publish an average rent for this submarket, so no rent can be quoted here.

Separately, the city code's M-1A light industrial zone allows uses such as artists studios and warehousing, with a 36-foot height limit, and sets rules for lots fronting Laguna Canyon Road^[6]. Confirm parcel zoning on the City zoning map before relying on the code text.

Why it matters: if you need light industrial or artisan space, ask how many comparable spaces are actually available, and compare that with the combined submarket's 291,371 square feet of inventory and zero reported leasing.

What are the hotel tax and sales tax proposals, and how big is the budget gap?

Voice of OC reported in July 2026 that the Laguna Beach council voted unanimously to continue exploring options and aim for a November 2028 ballot measure instead of 2026. The proposed hotel tax would rise from the current 12 percent to 14 percent and bring in about $3 million. A sales tax increase would take the city's rate from 7.75 percent to 8.75 percent and bring in $7.8 million a year^[7]. The same article describes the city as facing a narrow budget gap and gives no dollar figure for it.

No source found for this page shows that any increase has passed. Earlier, in July 2024, Voice of OC reported the transient occupancy tax at 12 percent, going to the general fund, with a ballot increase then estimated at $3.5 million a year^[8]. Visit Laguna Beach separately describes a 2 percent Tourism Marketing District fee added to hotel and vacation rental stays^[9].

One councilmember quoted by Voice of OC said, "we'd like to recapture dollars from our daytrippers"^[7]

Why it matters: if you own or plan to buy a hotel, motel or restaurant property, ask how a possible 14 percent hotel tax or 8.75 percent sales tax rate would affect your underwriting, and treat both as proposals, not law.

What is the Downtown Specific Plan Phase II update?

The Downtown Specific Plan is codified as Chapter 25.40 of the Laguna Beach zoning code, and its standards prevail where they conflict with other code standards. Changes to its permitting requirements require a Local Coastal Program amendment, i.e. Coastal Commission involvement^[10].

The Phase II update covers a 115-acre area and proposes amending building height, density, allowed uses and parking requirements. The California Office of Land Use and Climate Innovation's CEQAnet record shows a Notice of Preparation received on January 26, 2026^[11]. CEQAnet records the Notice of Preparation as received on that date, and this page found no source showing the update has been adopted.

Why it matters: if you are buying or leasing a Village storefront, gallery or restaurant space, ask what height, use or parking rules could change, and whether your plans need the current or the revised rules.

What is the Forest Avenue Promenade, and why does it matter to retail and restaurants?

The Laguna Beach Independent reported on January 16, 2026 that the council unanimously awarded Superb Engineering a $5.5 million construction contract at its January 13 meeting to permanently convert Forest Avenue to a promenade. Scope includes closing Forest Avenue and building a permanent plaza. Construction was anticipated to begin at the end of February and last through June^[12].

By October 2026 the Independent's homepage headline read "City Celebrates Forest Avenue Promenade's Official Opening"^[13]. This page did not find a source on how the closure has changed rents or sales for adjoining businesses.

Why it matters: if you are considering a space on or near Forest Avenue, ask current tenants about delivery access, parking and outdoor seating rules since the closure, and compare asking rents with nearby blocks.